The IEA has recently published its 2014 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP 2014) with a special focus on harnessing electricity’s potential. Starting from the premise that electricity will be an increasingly important vector in energy systems of the future, ETP 2014 takes a deep dive into actions needed to support deployment of sustainable options for generation, distribution and consumption. It charts a course by which policy and technology together become driving forces – rather than reactionary tools – in transforming the energy sector over the next 40 years.
In addition to analysing the global outlook to 2050 under different scenarios, across the entire energy system for more than 500 technology options, ETP 2014 explores pathways to a sustainable energy future in which policy support and technology choices are driven by economics, energy security and environmental factors. Starting from the premise that electricity will be an increasingly important vector in energy systems of the future, ETP 2014 takes a deep dive into actions needed to support deployment of sustainable options for power generation, distribution and end-use consumption.
ETP 2014 analyses three possible energy futures to 2050:
- 6 degrees C Scenario, where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results
- 4 degrees C Scenario reflects stated intentions by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency
- 2 degrees C Scenario offers a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
Some of the trends and conclusions are important and possibly contentious:
- The 2 degree scenario confirms that global population and economic growth can be decoupled from energy demand, even for oil.
- Solar, hydropower and onshore wind are presently forging ahead, while development is mixed for other clean energy supply.
- Emerging economies have stepped up their ambitions and become leaders in deploying low-carbon energy technologies.
- Continued increase in coal use counteracts emissions reduction from recent progress in the deployment of renewables, underlining the need to improve coal plant efficiency and scale up carbon capture and storage (CCS).
- Fossil fuel use decreases by 2050 in the 2DS, but its share of primary energy supply remains above 40%, reflecting its particularly important role for use in industry, transport and electricity generation.
- Energy efficiency makes the largest contribution to global emissions reduction in the 2 degree scenario, but needs to be combined with other technologies to meet long term targets.
There is a tremendous amount of information to reflect on. When combined with the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (and special focus publications), the volume (but also the quality) of information, data and analysis that the IEA is providing can be overwhelming. But as EiD readers are firming their own views on the sustainable energy path forward, ETP 2014 will provide a considerable amount of food for thought.
Information on ETP 2014 is available on the IEA website.
